Crude oil took a beating last week. Brent fell sharply, cash Dubai hit levels not seen since the pandemic, and Middle East differentials slumped to what Platts described as “pandemic-era lows.” By most measures, that should drag bitumen prices down with it.

It didn’t. Not fully, anyway.

That gap between crude benchmarks and actual bitumen transaction prices tells you a lot about where this market sits right now. Supply routes are constrained, freight insurance is expensive, Fujairah just recorded a record inventory surge, and buyers across Asia, India, and Africa are navigating all of it simultaneously. Crude is one input. The rest of the picture is more complicated.

Here’s what the numbers looked like in the week ending June 25, 2026, broken down by region and product type — with context on what’s actually driving values.

1. Global Crude Backdrop: Dubai Hits Six-Year Low

The week’s most dramatic move happened in crude, not bitumen.

Platts assessed benchmark cash Dubai at a discount of $2.68/barrel against same-month Dubai futures at the June 25 Asian close — a drop of $1.11/b on the day alone. That’s the widest discount since May 13, 2020, when the pandemic was gutting global demand. The outright Dubai price fell to around $64–65/b intraday.

The Dubai futures curve flipped into contango from July through December, which is a meaningful structural signal: the market is pricing future supply as more plentiful than current supply, not the other way around. That rarely happens when supply is tight.

What’s behind it? Several things at once. Middle East production is rising as Strait of Hormuz transit volumes recover. Ships that were stuck inside the Strait are now exiting. Saudi crude that was loaded at the start of the Iran war back in late February is arriving at destinations. West of Suez markets — Mediterranean, West Africa — are absorbing barrels that previously went East, relieving Asian pressure.

NYMEX light sweet crude (August) closed at $70.41/b on June 24 at the New York close, then rose to $71.96/b by June 25, showing some recovery as US gasoline markets strengthened. But the Middle East-specific crude grades that feed most bitumen production in the Gulf remained under pressure throughout.

Crude Price Summary (Week of June 23–25, 2026)

Benchmark	June 24 Close	June 25 Close	Change
Cash Dubai ($/b)	~$67.29	~$64.50	-$2.79
NYMEX WTI Aug ($/b)	$70.41	$71.96	+$1.55
ICE Brent Aug ($/b)	~$72.00	~$74.00	+$2.00 (est.)
Platts Dubai vs Futures	-$1.57/b	-$2.68/b	-$1.11

For bitumen buyers, this matters because HSFO 380 CST — the primary feedstock used in assessing bitumen production economics — tracks crude with a lag. The moves we’re seeing in crude now tend to feed through to bitumen assessments over 2–4 weeks, depending on refinery scheduling and term contract structures.

2. FOB Singapore Bitumen: Supply Tight, Prices Broadly Stable

Singapore is where most regional bitumen price benchmarks are set, and the picture there in week 26 was one of constrained supply holding values up despite falling crude.

Platts assessed FOB Singapore PEN 60-70 bitumen at $556/mt on June 24, unchanged from the prior week. The premium over HSFO 380 CST MOPS strip was assessed at 123.26 points (BTSGB00), rising by 1.75 points on the week. That widening premium is significant — it shows bitumen holding its ground even as the fuel oil benchmark it’s priced against softened.

Ship movements from Singapore terminals tracked by S&P Global Commodities at Sea during the week confirmed active loading:

• Pusaka Gemilang (3,543 mt) loaded at SRC on June 18, bound for Vung Tau, Vietnam
• New Grace (5,910 mt) loaded at SRC on June 20, headed to Donggala, China
• Sidra Qatar (4,020 mt) loaded at Exxon on June 20, bound for Cirebon, Indonesia
• Ning Hai Wan (4,853 mt) loaded on June 23, headed to Geelong, Australia

That’s four vessels departing in roughly five days — not huge volumes but consistent flow. The Australian destination is notable: Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery restarted its residual catalytic cracking unit in the same week, which affects local bitumen availability.

Why hasn’t Singapore bitumen fallen more with crude?

Supply concentration is one answer. Buyers who want non-Russian-origin bitumen are working from a shorter list of approved sources than they were a year ago. Multiple Singapore market participants cited tight supply of finished-grade materials as the reason cash premiums have stayed elevated. The Singapore-delivered marine fuel 0.5%S bunker premium jumped 34% week-on-week — a parallel story of the same underlying supply tightness in heavy products.

Date	FOB Singapore ($/mt)	WoW Change	MOPS Premium
June 24, 2026	$556.00	0.00	123.26 pts
Prior week	$556.00	—	121.51 pts

3. FOB South Korea: Export Activity Picks Up

South Korea’s bitumen market saw some notable export movement during the week, even as the broader crude complex softened.

Platts assessed FOB South Korea PEN 60-80 bitumen at $486/mt on June 24, unchanged week-on-week. The MOPS strip premium was assessed at 53.26 (BTKRB00), rising 15.51 points from the prior week. That’s a bigger premium jump than Singapore — which reflects Korea’s position as a growing export source and the tighter supply dynamics in Northeast Asia.

Ship movements from South Korean terminals were active:

• JS Onsan (5,881 mt) loaded at S-Oil’s Ulsan terminal on June 18, bound for China
• Hua Hang He Shun (5,988 mt) loaded at GS’s Yeosu terminal on June 18, headed to Lanshan, China
• Angel Blue (1,621 mt) loaded at GS’s Yeosu terminal on June 19, bound for Hakata, Japan
• Blue Kingdom (2,240 mt) loaded at SK Enmove’s Ulsan terminal on June 19, headed to Sakai, Japan
• Hanyu Victoria (6,070 mt) loaded at SK Enmove’s Ulsan terminal on June 23, bound for Calaca, Philippines
• Hanyu Imperial (3,828 mt) also loaded at SK Enmove’s Ulsan on June 23, headed to Chan May, Vietnam

Six vessels in less than a week, serving China, Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam. The diversity of destinations tells you Korea is exporting to fill gaps created by constrained availability elsewhere in the region.

On the petroleum products side, South Korea’s KNOC data for May 2026 showed fuel oil exports of 647,000 barrels, up sharply from 79,000 barrels in April. That recovery in export volume is partly flowing into bitumen-adjacent markets as refiners clear heavier products.

FOB South Korea Bitumen PEN 60-80 — Weekly Price

Date	FOB South Korea ($/mt)	WoW Change	MOPS Premium (pts)
June 24, 2026	$486.00	0.00	53.26
Prior week	$486.00	—	37.75

4. India CFR Prices: East Coast Rises, West Coast Holds

India is probably the most active spot market for bitumen in Asia right now, and the data from this week reflects that.

West Coast India (CFR): Both VG30 and VG40 held flat week-on-week.

• VG30: $630/mt CFR
• VG40: $635/mt CFR

India CFR Bitumen — Weekly Price Summary

Grade	West Coast CFR ($/mt)	WoW	East Coast CFR ($/mt)	WoW
VG30	$630.00	0.00	$665.00	+$10.00
VG40	$635.00	0.00	$675.00	+$10.00

5. FOB Bahrain: Weekly Assessment Unchanged

The FOB Bahrain bitumen assessment — published weekly on Wednesdays — held at $550/mt for PEN 60-70 during the week (BFBSW04, assessed June 25, 2026 at 4:30pm Singapore time).

This is a key reference price for buyers in the Gulf and East Africa. Bahrain sits strategically between the large producing centers of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and its weekly bitumen price tends to be more stable than the daily-assessed Singapore or Korean benchmarks precisely because it’s a weekly snapshot.

The $550/mt level for Bahrain PEN 60-70 compares with Singapore’s $556/mt FOB and Korea’s $486/mt FOB — the differentials reflecting freight economics, specification differences, and regional supply-demand balances.

For buyers targeting East Africa, which is a major destination for Gulf-origin bitumen, the Bahrain price plus freight to Mombasa, Dar es Salaam, or Djibouti typically defines the competitive floor. With clean tanker freight from the Arab Gulf to East Africa running at w290–w300 range during the week (per Platts clean tanker fixtures), the all-in landed cost math shifts materially depending on cargo size and vessel type.

6. Fujairah Inventory Surge and What It Means for Middle East Bitumen

This is probably the most market-moving datapoint of the week for anyone buying or selling heavy products out of the Gulf.

Oil product inventories at Fujairah rose a record 33% in the week ended June 22, reaching 6.846 million barrels — the highest since April 27 — according to Fujairah Energy Industry Zone (FOIZ/FEDCom) data published June 24.

Breaking it down by category:

Fujairah Oil Product Stocks — Week Ended June 22, 2026

Category	Stock (‘000 bbl)	WoW Change
Light distillates	1,402	+26
Middle distillates	1,420	+70
Heavy distillates & residues	4,024	+1,605

The heavy distillates number is the one that matters for bitumen. A jump of 1,605,000 barrels in a single week is extraordinary. That’s not a gradual build — something specific drove it.

According to Platts reporting, the surge in heavy distillates was driven by LSFO arrivals at Fujairah, with plans to load supplies onto barges for delivery to ships over the following days. This was primarily a bunkering inventory build, not a bitumen stock accumulation. But the two markets are closely linked: both draw from the same heavy product feedstocks, and Fujairah’s refinery complex services both.

Middle distillate stocks also climbed 5.2% to 1.42 million barrels, the highest since April 6. That suggests overall product availability through Fujairah is recovering as Strait of Hormuz transits normalize.

Why this matters for bitumen: When Fujairah heavy distillate stocks build sharply, it can signal near-term downward pressure on FOB Arab Gulf and FOB Fujairah heavy product prices. The Ex-Wharf Fujairah 380 CST HSFO differential dropped to 90.43/b (premium to MOPAG 180 CST strip) by June 24, adding 0.63 on the day. Bitumen buyers in the region should watch whether this inventory build sustains or disperses over the next 1–2 weeks.

FOB Fujairah HSFO 380 CST assessment stood at $480.10/mt on June 24, falling to $464.98/mt on June 25 — a sharp drop of $15.12/mt in a single session that reflects both the broader crude weakness and the inventory build signal.

What to Watch in the Coming Week

Strait of Hormuz normalization is the biggest variable. Traffic through the strait jumped to 78 ships on June 24, the highest since the war started in late February, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. If that trajectory continues, Middle East supply routes open up, insurance costs fall, and the supply premium embedded in Gulf-origin bitumen prices should compress.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy objected to the use of a “new route” for Strait passage in a June 25 statement, which introduces uncertainty about whether the transit increase sustains. Markets are watching this closely.

China’s clean product export policy remains tight for July. Two Sinopec refinery sources told Platts there had been no change in export policy, though market participants are watching whether the Hormuz reopening prompts Beijing to ease controls for August. Chinese export volumes of heavy products affect regional availability, including bitumen-adjacent grades.

India’s monsoon season is now fully underway, which typically slows road construction demand and softens bitumen buying activity in June–August. The East Coast price rise driven by a trade in the $705–740/mt range suggests some buyers are still active on spot procurement despite the seasonal slowdown.

HSFO trajectory: If the HSFO 380 CST market continues its slide — and the forward curve is pointing that way — bitumen outright prices will likely follow with a 2–4 week lag. The $436/mt FOB Singapore HSFO level on June 24 represents a significant drop from where we were in May. A further move to $400–410/mt range would create meaningful downside pressure on bitumen.

Final Thoughts

The disconnect between crude markets and bitumen prices is real, but it’s not permanent. Crude fell hard this week. HSFO followed. Bitumen, for now, is holding — supported by tight finished-grade supply, active regional demand (particularly the Pertamina tender for 1 million barrels of 92 RON gasoline signals robust Indonesian activity generally), and ongoing uncertainty about supply routes.

But the structural supports are softening at the edges. Fujairah inventories are building. HSFO is moving from backwardation to contango. Hormuz transits are rising. If these trends hold for another two to three weeks, the feedstock economics for bitumen production shift and the current price floor looks harder to sustain.

For buyers, the current window may represent reasonable procurement conditions before any potential crude recovery feeds through as higher bitumen prices. For sellers, the supply premium baked into today’s assessments may not persist as long as it might have seemed two weeks ago.

As always, regional conditions vary significantly. If you’re procuring for East Africa, Philippines, Vietnam, or South Asia, the freight and origin dynamics described above translate differently depending on your specific landing port and specification requirements.

Data in this article is sourced from the S&P Global Platts Asia-Pacific/Arab Gulf Marketscan publications dated June 24–25, 2026. All assessments are as published by Platts and reflect market conditions at the time of publication. This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. GVG Co. is a B2B bitumen supplier; contact us for current cargo availability and pricing.